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After Event-Driven Volatility, Shoulder Season Demand Means Gas Prices Resumed Their Fall

Minneapolis, MN | March 27, 2023 | By: Steve Sinos, Blue Lacy Advisors, LLC


Natural gas prices resumed their downward run during a wild week across markets. Weather-related volatility seems to be subsiding, and warming forecasts point to reduced demand expectations in the coming days. On March 10, 2023, NOAA expressed moderate to high confidence that temperatures across the US would be below normal for the upcoming week. As of last night, NOAA’s outlook had a moderate to high probability of above-normal temperatures on the East Coast. The chance of colder than normal temps in the West was higher, above 80% across the Southwest, combined with substantial rains, but at this point in the season, those cool temps mean overnight lows in the 40F range and daily highs in the upper-60F range. Likewise, European prices dipped after a brief spike as cool weather passed there. TTF and NBP saw losses in prompt trading of ~€8 and ~20 pence, respectively. Forecast demand for the upcoming week was as much as 40 million cubic meters lower than last week. So even at prices that should be increasingly attractive to buyers, the mood remains somber.

*This summary is based off March 17, 2023

A free excerpt, such as this one, will be published on a delay periodically. This is an excerpt from Blue Lacy Advisors, LLC's (“Blue Lacy”) weekly commentary for clients, which is based on a collection of models, research/analytical subscriptions, and bespoke work. Each week Blue Lacy explores how market drivers included in these analyses might affect or be used in clients' planning, budgeting, and execution of strategy. Call Blue Lacy to make an appointment today!


Meet the Author!

Phone: +1-832-413-3124

Steve has spent his career in strategy, risk, trading, and investment. He works with investors to source investments in opportunistic or high growth sectors, with particular interest in early-stage companies solving clearly defined problems.

He is currently a Managing Partner with Blue Lacy Advisors LLC, giving management teams and investors confidence in their decision making by supporting strategic planning and execution, risk management, commodity trading, and market analysis.

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