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Blue Lacy Advisors, LLC – End of December Market Commentary

Minneapolis, MN | January 11, 2023 | By: Steve Sinos, Blue Lacy Advisors, LLC



Summary


With weather forecasts trending warmer and winter’s end drawing near, natural gas prices continued to fall, even after a 213 Bcf estimated draw reported by the EIA this morning. Meteorologists see the beginning of January being particularly warm across the US, translating into total L48 gas demand of around 90 Bcf/d compared to an average 2022 burn of closer to 105Bcf/d and last week’s peak demand of 113 Bcf/d. That suggests the pace of storage withdrawals will be bearish, assuming production rebounds quickly from freeze-offs. That rebound appears on pace, adding 1.5Bcf/d as of last night’s report, bringing daily production back toward 96 Bcf/d. LNG feed gas nominations have rebounded alongside the return of gas production, with two USGC facilities adding ~0.7 Bcf/d to bring total nominations so far this week to 11.9 Bcf/d. This is before Freeport restarts, which has been pushed back again, now expected during the second half of January 2023.


*This summary is based off December 29, 2022


A free excerpt, such as this one, will be published on a delay periodically. This is an excerpt from Blue Lacy Advisors, LLC's (“Blue Lacy”) weekly commentary for clients, which is based on a collection of models, research/analytical subscriptions, and bespoke work. Each week Blue Lacy explores how market drivers included in these analyses might affect or be used in clients' planning, budgeting, and execution of strategy. Call Blue Lacy to make an appointment today!


 

Meet the Author!


Steve Sinos, Blue Lacy Advisors, LLC

Email: Sinos@bluelacyllc.com

Phone: +1-832-413-3124

Website: www.bluelacyllc.com


Steve has spent his career in strategy, risk, trading, and investment. He works with investors to source investments in opportunistic or high growth sectors, with particular interest in early-stage companies solving clearly defined problems.


He is currently a Managing Partner with Blue Lacy Advisors LLC, giving management teams and investors confidence in their decision making by supporting strategic planning and execution, risk management, commodity trading, and market analysis.


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