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Blue Lacy Advisors, LLC, - Beginning of November Crude Oil Market Commentary

Minneapolis, MN | November 7, 2022 | By: Steve Sinos, Blue Lacy Advisors, LLC


Crude Oil


Crude oil imports (i.e., rising refining demand) contributed to upward pressure on prices. The model has tracked Indonesian refined products exports among the top five fundamental volatility drivers over the last five days. During October, Indonesia imported ~280kbd, notably taking on more significant proportions of Middle Eastern and West African grades. Cargoes from Saudi Arabia alone rose to ~25% of total imports on ships that arrived to end the month. Similar volumes of Nigerian grades were imported during October, for the two to combine for ~120kbd. In line with regional peers, cargoes out of the US have been rising, up to ~15% of the last month's total. Growth in imports allowed them to push up clean product exports to an average of >955kbd over the same period. It is similar across Asia, as downed refineries come back online. This includes closely watched China, which saw crude loadings pick up, along with associated product exports. Over the last four weeks, the average waterborne arrival to China reached 9.75mm bpd, of which about 5.75mm bpd came from the Middle East. US imports also rose but made up a smaller percentage of arrivals during the month, accounting for just 3% of total waterborne imported crude.


*This summary is based off October 30, 2022


A free excerpt, such as this one, will be published on a delay periodically. This is an excerpt from Blue Lacy Advisors, LLC's (“Blue Lacy”) weekly commentary for clients, which is based on a collection of models, research/analytical subscriptions, and bespoke work. Each week Blue Lacy explores how market drivers included in these analyses might affect or be used in clients' planning, budgeting, and execution of strategy. Call Blue Lacy to make an appointment today!


 

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Phone: +1-832-413-3124


Steve has spent his career in strategy, risk, trading, and investment. He works with investors to source investments in opportunistic or high growth sectors, with particular interest in early-stage companies solving clearly defined problems.


He is currently a Managing Partner with Blue Lacy Advisors LLC, giving management teams and investors confidence in their decision making by supporting strategic planning and execution, risk management, commodity trading, and market analysis.



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